With the NBA All-star break right around the corner, the shortened 2012 season is almost half way over. We’ve had some excellent stories to watch develop, and without a clear title favorite, the second half should be a great one to witness as well.
It’s been an interesting ride for gamblers too. The lengthy lockout severely shortened the pre-season, and interrupted off-season routines. Several teams looked unprepared coming out the gate, and it led to some unpredictable play. Things finally seem to be settling down (outside of the lin-sane Knicks, of course), but here are some of the trends the defined the first half of the year.
It’s been tough to beat the books ATS this year.
Handicappers have been freakishly accurate this season. No matter what split you want to look at (Home vs. Away, Favorite vs. Dog, etc.), the league’s collective record is within plus or minus 1% of being .500 ATS. It’s a testament to how the key to good spread betting is sharp trend analysis, and keeping tabs on injuries and off-the-court stories.
Home court advantage has been a big factor for SU bets.
Regardless of which team is the money line favorite, squads playing at home are winning just under 59% of their games so far this year (311-217). Dogs at home have been 6% more likely to win than their on-the-road counterparts. A lot of people argue that home court doesn’t play a large a role in betting, but the numbers show that definitely isn’t true this year.
The under has been the dominant choice in o/u betting.
The under has been the right choice in 54.72% (284-235) of this year’s contests, and that number includes overtime games. It’s tough to tell if it was lack of execution at the beginning the year, or some staunch defense, but there’s been some good money to be made betting on low scores so far.
Be sure to come back and check out our analysis of the most interesting teams of the first half on Saturday, and then again on Monday, for our second half predictions.
